Have PM's chances of getting her Brexit deal past MPs improved?

As the PM tries to secure last-ditch concessions, Sky's Tamara Cohen says her chances of getting her deal through remain daunting.

Downing Street was hoping that MPs having a break over Christmas - a time to reflect on the options - would soften opposition to the prime minister's deal.

As parliament returns today, and the vote looms next Tuesday, the message from those I've spoken to is that, as per Theresa May's election catchphrase: nothing has changed.

Insiders are already resigned to more than one attempt being needed to get it through parliament. One cabinet source says: "I don't think it's winnable, but if she survives losing it, she could win if it came back for a second vote."

The prime minister is yet to unveil the assurances she is seeking from EU leaders in order to win MPs over on the issue of the backstop, in which Northern Ireland would remain in EU rules unless another way is found to keep the border open.

But since she dramatically called off the vote in December, the mood does not appear to have changed.

The DUP, whose votes are crucial to unlocking the support of Brexiteers, have only upped the ante over the past few days.

After representatives from the party met for lunch with Mrs May last week, Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson was asked in an interview if there was any way his party could support the prime minister's deal and replied: "No, there is not."

Westminster leader Nigel Dodds described the backstop on Sunday as "poison".

EU leaders want to help salvage the withdrawal agreement they have spent two years negotiating, but binning the backstop altogether is simply not on the agenda.

Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, told reporters on Friday after a call with Angela Merkel that the pair had a "brainstorm as to what we could do to assist Prime Minister May in securing ratification of the withdrawal agreement" but that this would not "change or contradict what was agreed back in November".

One loyal Conservative MP who backed Remain and wants the prime minister's deal to get over the line, told me over the weekend: "The only way [it gets through] is if the DUP publicly backs it, unless that happens it has a snowball's chance in hell."

Of course the more it looks as if the vote is lost anyway, the less the incentive for the EU to offer concessions if they will only be asked for more afterwards, in order for the government to have another try.

MPs in the European Research Group of hardline Brexiteers say they still expect dozens of MPs to oppose the deal in parliament, whatever is offered.

They will be invited to Downing Street for drinks this evening, but goodwill is not likely to be flowing. One former minister in the group, asked would be needed to convince him, reiterated: "Completely dropping the backstop."

The attempt to convince MPs that no deal would cause disruption and economic damage is hardly helped by the fact that the message is failing to cut through to Conservative members.

According to polling last week, the party faithful heavily oppose the deal, and 57% of them would favour no deal, if given three options including Mrs May's deal and remaining in the EU.

In a TV interview yesterday, the prime minister insisted the vote would go ahead, with the hope that new compromises from the EU can clinch it, but did not deny it could be held multiple times.

Some Conservatives wonder, optimistically, if Labour MPs might eventually soften their opposition to the deal, out of concern that they would be facilitating a no deal exit.

Labour sources today insist their position - not to vote for it - is unchanged, and deny reports that MPs could abstain in order to allow the withdrawal agreement though, infuriate the DUP and perhaps attract their support for the nuclear option of toppling the government.

With time ticking down, and no deal preparations ramping up, senior MPs in all parties are grouping together to try and force Mrs May's hand.

Former cabinet ministers Nicky Morgan and Yvette Cooper are leading an attempt to block tax changes unless the threat of leaving with no deal is ruled out - which could go ahead tomorrow.